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Published: Sep 29th, 2005

Ebony-ivory not always a winning formula

By: Raynard Jackson, Guest Columnist
Issue date: 12/29/05 Section: POLITICS

Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley has selected Prince George's County Del. Anthony G. Brown as his running mate in next year's race for governor. Brown, 44, a Harvard-educated lawyer and Army reservist who recently returned from duty in Iraq, reminds many people of U.S. Sen. Barak Obama (both in physical appearance and pedigree). His father is Jamaican and his mother is Swiss.

According to quotes in several newspapers, "It will be an exciting team. One of us has an administrative background, and one of us has a policy background," according to O'Malley.
Brown, who is Black and a second-term legislator from Mitchellville serving as House majority whip, also adds racial and geographic diversity to the ticket. Prince George's is home to more Democratic voters than any other jurisdiction in Maryland.

There has been much speculation about Brown's political future since his recent return from duty in Iraq. It was believed that he considered running for state attorney general but decided that this opportunity made more sense.

O'Malley's move puts considerable pressure on Doug Duncan to pick a Black as his running mate. Duncan is the county executive of Montgomery County. This is the most affluent county in Maryland (and one of the wealthiest in the country). Duncan is expected to make his announcement sometime next month. He already has the support of former Baltimore Mayor Kurt Schmoke, who is Black.

So, what does this mean for Black voters in Maryland? Because of the "Ehrlich effect" (making Michael Steele his running mate), Democrats think that is why a Republican won the election three years ago. As Democrats are wont to do, they are misreading the election results.

Kathleen Townsend lost the governor's race because she was a horrible candidate, not because of the "Ehrlich effect." At best, Steele helped Ehrlich at the margins. So, Democrats figure if they put a Black on the ticket, they will automatically win the governor's seat next year. Not so fast!

While Brown has a storied background, Blacks are becoming more politically sophisticated. What good is it to have a Black on the ticket if he indeed has no power during the campaign (and presumably none if elected). Other than putting Steele in charge of various ad hoc committees, what power does/did Steele have to effect change? That's going to be the downfall of the Ehrlich campaign (if the Democrats know how to use the issue).

What should Blacks be looking for? First, I would ask Brown: "What is the case for the Black community supporting O'Malley?" Blacks should also look at O'Malley's past and extrapolate his future actions. His past actions have been remarkably silent when it comes to issues of importance to our community. What plans does O'Malley have to address this issue? Should they win, will Brown have the power to cut deals on behalf of the Black community?

Blacks make up 28 percent of the population in Maryland and could account for 40 percent of the Democratic primary vote. According to Matthew Crenson, a professor of political science at Johns Hopkins University, "The real battleground is the suburbs of Baltimore . Ehrlich won the area in the general election, and O'Malley is relatively strong in Baltimore County."

A recent poll released by Gonzales Research and Marketing Strategies testing the two Democratic contenders against Ehrlich showed O'Malley with a six-point lead over Ehrlich, but Duncan running neck and neck against the governor. Among Black voters, however, both Duncan and O'Malley would poll about two-thirds of the vote in a contest with Ehrlich.
Based on this, it's not enough for O'Malley or Duncan to put a Black on their ticket, they must both make a clearly defined statement as to the role their running-mates will have in the campaign and in the administration should they win. For these candidates to suggest that Blacks should simply "trust them" is insulting. Black voters in both parties should demand specific benefits in order to obtain their votes. Can Brown deliver those assurances? That will determine who wins and who loses.
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About the Author

Raynard Jackson is president and CEO of Raynard Jackson & Associates, Inc., a political consulting/government affairs firm in Washington, D.C. RJA provides strategic advice and counsel to elected officials (White House, Congress), corporations and entrepreneurs.